| Song | Artist | Predicted |
|---|---|---|
| paint the town red | doja cat | 1 |
| the worst person alive | g flip | 55 |
| saving up | dom dolla | NA |
| rhyme dust | mk | 72 |
| prada | cass | 90 |
| adore u | fred again | 40 |
| what was i made for? | billie eilish | 3 |
| rush | troye sivan | 10 |
| lovin on me | jack harlow | 17 |
| chemical | post malone | 14 |
| vampire | olivia rodrigo | 2 |
| rumble | skrillex | NA |
| kill bill | sza | 9 |
| atmosphere | fisher | NA |
| nanana | peggy gou | 5 |
| sprinter | dave | 4 |
| back on 74 | jungle | NA |
| eat your man | dom dolla | NA |
| therapy | budjerah | NA |
| sorry instead | spacey jane | NA |
A Follow Up on my Hottest 100 Predictions
In my last post I ended by planting my flag and making my predictions for the Hottest 100 for 2023. And on first glance, I’m pretty happy with myself, picking not only the top song, but a good chunk of the top 20. So today I just want to do a quick follow up on how I did.
Top 20
The top 10 seems okay, but i did miss a lot of the top 20 completely. I seemed to be undervaluing Australian artists such as Dom Dolla, Spacey Jane, and G Flip, as well as EDM as a genre, which made up a much greater portion of the top 20 than I predicted.
Snubbed Songs
| Song | Artist | Predicted |
|---|---|---|
| love type | poolclvb | 6 |
| super ego | babe rainbow | 8 |
| adored | royel otis | 15 |
| lost without you | san cisco | 21 |
| super-vision | dice | 22 |
| blak britney | miss kaninna | 24 |
| ruthless | hooligan hefs | 26 |
| attention | doja cat | 27 |
| james dean | tash sultana | 28 |
| do it again | benee | 33 |
| i wish you roses | kali uchis | 35 |
| dash of speed | rum jungle | 36 |
| too much | the kid laroi | 37 |
| eyes ahead | dice | 38 |
| pets and drugs | the rubens | 42 |
| into your room | holly humberstone | 44 |
| up | lee | 46 |
| pegasus | arlo parks | 47 |
| exploding | angie mcmahon | 48 |
| calling | metro boomin | 50 |
| must be nice | ruel | 51 |
| better love | eliza rose | 52 |
| your funeral | maya | 53 |
| don’t let me down | gus dapperton | 54 |
| conceited | lola young | 56 |
| messed up | holy holy | 57 |
| lost in the rush | telenova | 58 |
| candle flame | jungle | 59 |
| prescription | remi wolf | 63 |
| change | laurel | 64 |
| angel | pinkpantheress | 65 |
| sinner | the last dinner party | 66 |
| midwest | vacations | 67 |
| pretty girl | ice spice | 68 |
| i wanna dance | royel otis | 71 |
| make up your mind | cordae | 74 |
| viper room | thornhill | 75 |
| weightless | arlo parks | 76 |
| can’t play myself | skepta | 78 |
| black mascara. | raye | 79 |
| feel alive | cat | 80 |
| tied up! | genesis owusu | 81 |
| mrs. hollywood | gojo | 84 |
| am i dreaming | metro boomin | 85 |
| comma’s | onefour | 86 |
| lola | maya | 87 |
| it’s cool to be in love | greta stanley | 88 |
| since i have a lover | 6lack | 89 |
| lil boo thang | paul russell | 91 |
| going kokomo | royel otis | 93 |
| all my life | lil durk | 94 |
| brain freeze | northeast party house | 95 |
| healing | molly millington | 96 |
| sticky | kito | 97 |
| rakata | the jungle giants | 98 |
So there were 55 songs in my predictions that didn’t make it into the countdown, including 3 of my top 20. Funily enough though, a lot of my predictions seemed to line up with peoples opions online with Love Type, Super Ego and Adored all being mentioned as snubs from the hottest 100.
Surprise Songs
| Song | Artist | rank |
|---|---|---|
| saving up | dom dolla | 3 |
| rumble | skrillex | 12 |
| atmosphere | fisher | 14 |
| back on 74 | jungle | 17 |
| eat your man | dom dolla | 18 |
| therapy | budjerah | 19 |
| sorry instead | spacey jane | 20 |
| be your man | g flip | 22 |
| take it off | fisher | 23 |
| rich baby daddy | drake | 25 |
| rough | g flip | 26 |
| dance the night | dua lipa | 28 |
| say yes to heaven | lana del rey | 29 |
| not strong enough | boygenius | 30 |
| get him back! | olivia rodrigo | 34 |
| baby again.. | fred again | 35 |
| boy’s a liar pt. 2 | pinkpantheress | 36 |
| laced up | hilltop hoods | 37 |
| scary movies | the rions | 40 |
| pedestal | lime cordiale | 42 |
| popular | the weeknd | 43 |
| sweetheart | old mervs | 47 |
| padam padam | kylie minogue | 48 |
| australia | g flip | 50 |
| ten | fred again | 51 |
| i used to be fun | teen jesus | 52 |
| lookin’ out | king stingray | 53 |
| more than you know | blink182 | 54 |
| all-american bitch | olivia rodrigo | 56 |
| darkside | bring me the horizon | 57 |
| lost | bring me the horizon | 58 |
| a&w | lana del rey | 60 |
| fall at your feet | peking duk | 64 |
| real life | g flip | 65 |
| leaving the light | genesis owusu | 69 |
| snooze | sza | 70 |
| speedracer | teenage dads | 74 |
| nobody gets me | sza | 75 |
| sofa king | royel otis | 76 |
| i don’t wanna be … | ruel | 77 |
| bleed | the kid laroi | 78 |
| video killed the … | teenage dads | 79 |
| 7 days | g flip | 80 |
| like a girl does | peach prc | 81 |
| exes | tate mcrae | 82 |
| the summoning | sleep token | 83 |
| midnight driving | teenage dads | 88 |
| nightmare | polaris | 90 |
| did you know that… | lana del rey | 91 |
| strawberry daydream | pacific avenue | 92 |
| no bad days | the terrys | 93 |
| welcome to the dcc | nothing but thieves | 95 |
| stay blessed | genesis owusu | 97 |
| cool about it | boygenius | 98 |
| i miss you | slowly slowly | 99 |
With 55 snubs, we are going to have 55 surprise songs. There doesn’t seem to be a massive trend here. G flip only made it into my countdown twice, so 5 of their songs are in this list. Its also interesting seeing which conventionally popular songs are part of this list. Boy’s a liar pt. 2 by Pinkpantheress and All American-Bitch which peaked at 2 and 10 on the aria charts were left out in my predictions, even though it predicted similar chart toppers in the top 10.
Looking at these plots, it seems that the chart data for these songs didn’t correctly join with the play data from triple J. After cleaning the names, I was hoping that there wouldn’t be too much of a discrepancy. However, in the ARIA charts, “all-american bitch” is listed as “all-american b**ch,” and “boys a liar pt. 2” is listed as “boys a liar”. This kind of discrepancy is probably present throughout my dataset and may have led to some major inaccuracies. However, it is also just part of life when dealing with text data.
Did I do better than Warm Tuna?
Part of my mission when setting out to make these predictions was to outperform 100 Warm Tunas, who utilize a compilation of social media posts to formulate their predictions.
| Song | Artist | rank | warm_tuna | my_rankning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| paint the town red | doja cat | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| the worst person alive | g flip | 2 | 11 | 55 |
| saving up | dom dolla | 3 | 18 | NA |
| rhyme dust | mk | 4 | 5 | 72 |
| prada | cass | 5 | 19 | 90 |
| adore u | fred again | 6 | 6 | 40 |
| what was i made for? | billie eilish | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| rush | troye sivan | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| lovin on me | jack harlow | 9 | 49 | 17 |
| chemical | post malone | 10 | 28 | 14 |
| vampire | olivia rodrigo | 11 | 14 | 2 |
| rumble | skrillex | 12 | 3 | NA |
| kill bill | sza | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| atmosphere | fisher | 14 | 23 | NA |
| nanana | peggy gou | 15 | 15 | 5 |
| sprinter | dave | 16 | 22 | 4 |
| back on 74 | jungle | 17 | 13 | NA |
| eat your man | dom dolla | 18 | 59 | NA |
| therapy | budjerah | 19 | 8 | NA |
| sorry instead | spacey jane | 20 | 21 | NA |
Straight away, I can see that warm tuna did better than me, but by how much?
So, I made up a quick statistic to see how far off our predictions were. This is the sum of the magnitudes of the differences between the predicted score and the actual score. If a song didn’t make the top 100, it’s given the equivalent rank of 101. I then divide this by 100 to get the average deviation for each prediction.
my score: 36.28 warm tuna's score: 26.5 So from these statistics, we can see that my predictions were, on average, about 10 places more off than warm tuna’s.
Next Year?
I reckon this method still has promise, but I need to sort out the name joining issue to ensure that my method is working at its maximum potential. I also want to include genre and artist country into it since it seemed to be an important factor in the final rank that I didn’t account for.